The Miracle Economy that is South Australia 2040

 

In 2015, the South Australian Premier of the day, Jay Weatherall, conducted a Royal Commission into Nuclear energy. He did this in spite of the huge opposition to anything to do with the nuclear industry throughout his Australian Labor Party, and widely in the bureaucracy as well as some parts of industry. The findings of the Royal Commission were to be an historic turning point for both South Australia and Australia itself, and turned around the historic under achievement of the SA economy compared to most of the rest of Australia.

The Royal Commission was a brave move by the South Australian Labor Premier, as his party had been implacably opposed to both nuclear power, and acceptance of nuclear waste. But at the time, SA found itself caught in the middle of inaction on climate change by conservative forces, particularly the Liberal Party under Malcolm Turnbull, then in power in Canberra and SA’s desperate need for reliable sources of power. This was not helped in late 2016, when there was a state-wide blackout due to a convergence of unprecedented phenomena happening all at once: freak storms, the breakdown of a gas fired power station, and a breakdown of supply from the national grid. In other words, an unprecedented set of circumstances, but one nevertheless which need to be addressed urgently.

The conservatives’ response to this was to cynically blame the SA government’s “obsessive” commitment to alternative energy, pointing out that this would not happen if they relied on coal. Given that no financial institution globally was financing coal fired stations in the foreseeable future without government guarantees, Weatherall needed quickly to find a short term political fix this problem. But in the long term there was no alternative but to fundamentally “change the game”.

In April, 2017, he announced his short to medium solution. SA would invest in a large back up battery facility costing over $100m, which was largely inspired by the Tesla electric entrepreneur Elon Musk. In addition the government would build a gas fired power-station as a backup for the sort of extraordinary circumstances experienced in 2017.

But in September 2017, Weatherall announced the fundamental game changer which was destined to not only change Australia’s energy landscape, but also much of the rest of the world. He began his address:

“Ladies and gentlemen, it is my great pleasure today to outline an exciting future for our great state of South Australia. Ever since we elected Don Dunstan as premier in the 1970s, South Australia has had fair claim to being Australia’s most progressive state. After the Dunstan era, there followed further progressive reforms: land rights, an indigenous governor, decriminalising homosexuality and of course big, brave festivals.  

“Maintaining the trend, SA also became a heartland for political experiments — Steele Hall’s Liberal Movement, the Australia Party and the Australian Democrats. These days, it has been South Australian Labor in the Senate, with the support of independent thinkers such as Nick Xenophon who saved Australia from the ravages of the extreme right wing ideologues of the Abbott Government.

“We now want to match these progressive instincts with an equally progressive and visionary economic future for SA, one which will take us into a new era of economic prosperity which is not reliant on the boom industries of the past – the motor industry, consumer manufacturing and fossil fuel fired energy generation.

“Now opportunity beckons. There is a chance to embrace technological change the same way we embraced social change and create Australia’s first ultra-modern, sustainable economy. In short, we want to turn South Australia over the next twenty- five years into the greenest, most technically advanced environmental economy in the world. We have the infrastructure, the resources, the skills and the money to get it done. And we will. The surplus we generate from our nuclear activities, will be ploughed back into investments which will transform the economy from top to bottom to ensure our vision is reached”.

Weatherall’s speech coincided with the launch of the SA government’s policy prescriptions as a result of the recommendations from the Royal Commission into the Nuclear industry, and it is fair to say the vision staggered Australia and much of the world.

The vision, as subsequently outlined by Weatherall’s staff, came in a number of components:

  1. South Australia will commit to being THE greenest, most advanced and sustainable state in the world –economically, financially and environmentally;
  2. central to that future will be a clean, efficient, technologically advanced and extremely valuable nuclear industry. This will be broken into several parts:
  3. South Australia will be made the centre of the world nuclear industry by providing a ‘close loop’ industry, i.e. rather than selling its uranium oxide to the rest of the world, it will rent it to them, and have the waste returned to South Australia for storage and eventual use as additional fuel in new generation nuclear reactors. Just by this alone the Royal Commission estimated this will generate for the State an additional surplus over the next ten years of $60 billion;
  4. SA will commit to spend some of that surplus to support the creation of a new generation nuclear industry, and construct under licence a generation 4 reactor from one of several suppliers under open tender such as GE Hitachi with its PRISM reactor, Rosatom with its BN reactor, and possibly from new innovative players such as Terrestrial The Mission of SANC will be to:
  5. license the building of a fast breeder reactor which will produce electricity from spent fuel rods sourced from the clients of Australian uranium exporters and eventually from nuclear fuel stockpiles from around the world. SANC will be responsible for the running of this process, and the accumulation of revenue, until the technology is mature, at which time SANC will sell it to the highest bidder provided its operational headquarters remains in SA, but substantial royalties will still flow to the government;
  6. be responsible for the export of uranium and the return of the waste from around the world, and the development of the storage facilities in South Australia;

iii.      oversee the enforcement of strict standards agreed globally for the movement of uranium oxide and waste around the world to and from Australia;

  1. provide technical advice to the federal government to ensure compliance to global standards; and
  2. provide the management and running of the generation 4 reactor and the distribution of the electricity to South Australia and elsewhere in Australia and offshore

The generation 4 fast breeder reactors had been a dream of the nuclear industry for decades, but no one has had the cash, the socio-political and geological environment nor the political will to make it happen. The Royal Commission though, after extensive global examination of the issue, came to the view that given the right commitment, skills and finance it would be possible for it to not only work but for it to be ready within ten years: and so it proved to be.

By 2025, the consortium charged with developing the reactor had not only had a pilot plant operating for 12 months, but was in the process of constructing a full-blown plant. This meant that via this new plant, it was possible to recycle nuclear waste from spent fuel rods with only 5% waste, and even that was then capable of recycling and so it too eventually ended up as fuel. South Australia was therefore in a position to deliver its promise of providing the world with a “close loop” nuclear industry, and the world came flocking to its door.

Between the time when South Australia started the closed loop policy in 2018, and the time the pilot generation 4 pilot reactor was commissioned in 2022, South Australia had earned over $40 billion in fees from those countries needing immediate resolution to managing used nuclear fuel. And all SA then did was to begin the process of turning it into green electricity, which eventually no only fed into Australia’s national energy grid supplying over 50% of national demand, but Australia became a major exporter of electricity once the power link was established across the Timor Sea to Indonesia and beyond to South East Asia.

As a direct result of the announcement of the SA government’s change of policy, and its commitment to a closed loop nuclear cycle, BHP Billiton announced it had decided to reopen for development the Roxby Downs mineral site in Northern South Australia– the biggest single deposit of uranium oxide and copper in the world, as well as numerous other minerals. This had been shelved in 2013 in view of the falling commodity prices and the uncertain future of the nuclear power industry. In the words of BHP: “South Australia changes everything”. From 2018 to 2030, BHP spent $10 billion developing the mine, but estimated over the 50 year life of the mine will make over $100 million dollars from it. It rapidly became SA’s biggest export earner, until the nuclear industry and its associated power generation and recycling overtook it in the early 2030’s.

Once the nuclear waste earnings started coming in in late 2017, SA rapidly began to commit to “greening” its economy. SA had long had a number of natural advantages, both from natural resources and its perceived redundant manufacturing and technology base. Weatherall now set about turning them into real economic opportunities.

First there was Elon Musk’s  Tesla electric car, his SpaceX – the most successful private provider of space travel, and his SolarCity – the US’s most successful solar energy company. Musk was a perfect fit for South Australia: redundant car factories, an operational space station in Wimmera Rocket Range, and the world’s second highest penetration of solar panels per household (after Queensland). Further, it had abundant sunlight both in winter and summer.

In 2018, in a joint news conference between Weatherall and Musk it was announced that:

  1. South Australia would hand over for nothing all the redundant car plants in South Australia to Tesla. Further, the government would provide $1billion dollars to adapt those plants for production of the Tesla Model S, X and the coming 3 provided these factories became the supply hub in the Asia Pacific region;
  2. Tesla would commit to developing and manufacturing an electric “peoples’” car which would be provided for every one at a fraction the cost of taxis, and ordered from the net and in the street. They would be all driverless;
  3. South Australia would progressively over 5 years make their major arterial roads into electric roads i.e. roads which are configured to charge electric cars as they drive along the roads which were in use in Europe in 2016 on a pilot basis, and have been increasingly charging buses as they drive along freeways. By 2025, most major roads in SA were electrified. The energy for these roads were provided by SolarCity with solar cells dotted along their fringes together with Tesla battery packs, as well as from the nuclear power stations. In the words of Musk: “it is a world first, but an incredibly exciting first”;
  4. SpaceX set up a manufacturing and development centre at Woomera for their state of the art rockets, but the actual launch pads were located in the Gulf of Carpentaria owing to the need for launch pads to be closer to the equator. By 2030, there were more rocket launches from the Cape than in North America owing to the insatiable demand from Asia and the lowest cost provider status of SpaceX.

South Australia had traditionally a vibrant Agribusiness sector, mostly centred on seafood of various kinds, world famous wines, and strong sheep, cattle and crops of various kinds. In 2017, for the first time in half a century Agribusiness passed the mining industry as Australia’s biggest export earner, and was seen to have as much potential as extractive industries because of the need to support the world’s growing population in the face of climate change and rapidly more variable weather.

SA is a very large state – it is twice the size of France for instance, and has always been constrained in its agribusiness growth by its lack of water. The nuclear opportunity opened up possibilities here too. With Nuclear desalination plants already in operation in Japan and Europe, and operating at a fraction of the cost of fossil fuel driven ones – even solar ones – nuclear energy seemed an obvious direction to pursue secure water for what was going to be a very fast growing population.

In 2021, the SA government announced the construction under the direction of the SANC of a  300-megawatt nuclear plant at Whyalla which would be required to drive a desalination facility with a capacity of 1 million cubic meters of potable water a day. That is enough water to support a population of between 3 or 4 million people. That same population would require between 4,000 and 6,000 megawatts of installed capacity to meet its electricity needs. Over time that facility not only supported SA’s very fast growing population, but enabled a range of new agribusiness industries to develop in the SA desert which would not have been possible otherwise

In addition, in 2017, Weatherall announced that he would invest $5 billion per annum into research in environmental technologies, funded from the nuclear royalties. The decisions about the funding allocations would be by an independent panel made up of a variety of the best environmental scientists in the world.  The only caveat was that the research and subsequent commercialization should be headquartered in South Australia. The result was that most major universities in the world opened campuses in South Australia and by 2040 SA per capita had more Phds than anywhere else in the western world. SA became the Australian hub of innovation and research for environmental industries, and the subsequent spin off companies remained head quartered in SA.

In April 2019, the new Federal Labor Government and Weatherall produced an even bigger shock than he did 18 months earlier. Surrounded by much of the new Federal Labor Cabinet: new PM Chris Evans; Penny Wong – Foreign Affairs; Tanya Plibersek – Treasurer; Richard Marles – Defence; and Anthony Albanese – Infrastructure. With them were the President of France, the Honorable Emmanuel Macron; and the Prime Minister of New Zealand, the right Honorable Bill English. Chris Evans started off:

“Today, ANZAC day, I am delighted to announce a major step forward in the modernisation of the Australian Economy which will make us, and especially South Australia, a pivotal player in Asia/Pacific region.

“Following our election mid last year we have been conducting a root and branch study of government expenditures and what opportunities exist for us to modernise and make our economy even more competitive. One of those opportunities is to help SA accelerate its transition to a clean green high tech economy. In doing so we recognised that SA’s ship- building capabilities together with its transition to a safe nuclear environment represented a very significant chance for our country.

“In 2015, the then LCP Government announced its intention to build up to 12 French designed ‘Shortfin Barracuda’. These French submarines are currently serving with the French navy as nuclear submarines and require expensive and extensive redesign to become diesel driven equivalents. Conventional power also considerably restricts its range.

“After extensive consultation with the French Government and the French builders, and strong support from our Department of Defence and the RAN, we have decided to build almost identical boats to their French equivalents including their nuclear power trains. In making this decision we believe this should be and will be above politics as it is so important to our future. I therefore thank the Leader of the Opposition for her provisional support which I received after I briefed her last night.

 Both parties, and the State Government, realise this is a big step but will be a major boost to SA transition to a nuclear future and provide us with leading edge capabilities in the Asia Pacific region. In recognition of the significance of this announcement to Australia and France, we welcome the French President the Honourable Emmanuel Macron to his first visit to Australia as President.

“My great friend and colleague, New Zealand’s PM Bill English, we also welcome. Bill is not only a great friend of Australia, he also leads the government of our greatest friend and ally, and fellow ANZAC partner, New Zealand. In doing so I would like to reveal that NZ has agreed not only to buy an additional two boats, but also take a 20% equity in the project. Over time we intend to make SA a nuclear hub in the Asia Pacific in partnership with our French partners, and intend to sell a number of additional boats to friendly allies around the Pacific rim. We estimate this could be as many as 20 boats over the life of the project. By going nuclear, there is no doubt we vastly improve the attractiveness of these boats to other buyers.

“I have to emphasise that none of this would have been possible without the visionary stance taken by the SA government in developing a “closed loop” nuclear economy, something I know our French partners are very very keen to capitalise on in the years ahead”.

To put it mildly, this caused a huge stir around the world, and certainly accelerated considerable additional interest in SA’s direction. It also played a critical role in helping SA successfully transform itself into the most prosperous economy in Australia such that today, in 2040, South Australia has the highest per capita income of all Australian states, is regarded as a model in sustainable development throughout the world, and has a population of over 5 million people, having overtaken WA and Queensland since 2020. Oh yes, and by 2040, in addition to the 12 submarines the RAN purchased, and the two for the  RNZN, so far there have been 21 sold to navies on the Pacific rim, and the Barracudas are regarded as amongst the most lethal weapons afloat and has caused many navies to play “catch up” when their power was realised. Nearly all of these boats use SA as a maintenance and technical base.

How Renewables are changing the landscape

In spite of the federal government’s bias towards traditional fossil fuels, and their continuing refusal to dismantle the subsidies to the fossil fuel industries (if you don’t believe me look at the $8 billion subsidies the federal government gives to the mining Industry per annum for diesel fuel, and the cost of non-indexation of excise on petrol –abolished in 2001 by John Howard in a desperate attempt to stay in office and estimated to have cost the treasury since then  an estimated $45billion), technologies are rapidly overtaking them.

Just this week it was revealed that the ACT government is on target to have 90% of its energy need fulfilled by wind and solar by 2020. This is in spite of Joe Hockey saying he is determined to withdraw all federal assistance to such a scheme, but lo and behold the ACT government says it doesn’t need any because these technologies are by themselves competitive with fossil fuels in the ACT. Whilst this is partly due to the special ACT environment, it is nevertheless a breakthrough.

I have always maintained that technology will in the end address successfully the climate change issue as long as sufficient money is poured into R&D and governments internationally insist on a level playing field i.e all subsidies for both fossil fuels and alternatives are withdrawn or at least be equivalent, which of course means also R&D money.

As an illustration of what can be done, it was announced last month there has been a breakthrough in solar energy technologies. The thing that has long held back the solar industry has been that it has in most cases only been possible to generate energy when the sun shines. But not at night and not when there is heavy cloud cover. Up until now there has also been a limited ability to store energy which could then be switched on at night. There have been various schemes to overcome this including new battery technologies and the use of hydro. For instance a scheme which is under serious consideration is to put 1000 square kilometres of solar panels in northern Australia and have some of the daylight power be directed to pump water up a hill to a mountain top lake and have it flow down again overnight to provide 24 hours of power. The intention of this scheme was then to distribute this power throughout south east asia via an underground cable and into the Asian power grids, thereby becoming a major source of foreign exchange.

Whilst this is a very interesting idea, it seems the latest technology announcement from researchers at MIT and Harvard may have made THE breakthrough which appears to make all this redundant.

Last month (April 2014), scientists at Harvard and MIT announced something extraordinary: they had found a way to create solar cells that can store accumulated energy from sunlight, and then, with no more than a burst of a few photons, release that energy in a steady and continuous form. These new types of solar cells, called photoswitches,  are made from a form of carbon nanotube called azobenzene, which can exist in two different configurations. One collects energy from the photons that hit it and stores it, another releases it. Because they can be switched from one form to another, the cell is essentially a battery, and this solves many of the problems of storage that arise with a weather-dependent system such as solar.

The great advantage of such a technology is that it would make possible solar cells that were an utterly stable continuous power supply. When you combine it with work being done elsewhere on solar cells that can perform in cloudy conditions, you have the plan for an entirely stable solar delivery system,  indeed, one that is more stable than the large-scale privatised power systems that we currently rely on, subject to mass technical failure, Enron-style credit events, and routine under-maintenance.

Such technology is small miracle, yet it’s only one example of dozens of advances occurring as renewable energy technology comes into contact with new materials and starts to be transformed by them. Thus, in the weeks and months before this announcement, news in renewables included: a new nanomaterial that can increase solar fuel cell efficiency by up to 80%, a solar-powered hybrid car that can charge up without needing to dock at a recharge station; and a plane the size of a 747 that will be able to fly around the world without refuelling. On every front, the renewables revolution is not merely gaining pace, but accelerating exponentially and the overwhelming reason for this is new materials.

The revolution is here. It is about time Joe Hockey and the Australian Federal Government got on board rather than making disparaging remarks about the ACT Government intentions, with Hockey in particular saying if he had his way he would shut down all wind turbines in the ACT because “he doesn’t like the look of them”. Got news for you Joe – they are here to stay. You’d better tell your fossil fuel mates the train is leaving the station and their horse and buggies won’t be able to catch up!

(Partially sourced from Crikey.com)

The contradictions of the Abbott Government

In a new federal government which has mostly been a huge disappointment, Joe Hockey stands out as being closest in it to a rational politician. Too often, the government has tended to prioritize a “tea partiest” social reform agenda (driven mostly by Abbott himself), while often eschewing the urgently needed economic reform agenda, which has always been the hardest, and most important area to tackle in Federal politics.

Abbott seems ready to implement a baffling array of side issues, long being championed by the looney right in Australia, like the Institute of Public Affairs, who are well outside the main stream, but who nevertheless are listened to by the ideological, ultra conservative, mostly conservative Catholic, cabinet of Abbott. To list them all would take up more space than desired, but just consider these:

  1. apparently it is now “ok to be a bigot” (according to the chief Law Officer in the land George Brandis), no matter how this might offend others or diminish their space under the Australian sky;
  2. nobbling the ABC, with apparently the eventual intention of selling off, at least parts of it, to News Limited;
  3. bringing back the British honors system (what a joke!);
  4. insisting on implementing the most expensive paid parental leave scheme in the world (and most eschewed to the rich);
  5. refusing to consider a free vote on gay marriage; and
  6. dismantling a website developed by the Federal Department of Health to inform consumers of the the most fattening and least fattening foods and have that reflected in food labeling – a very effective way of tackling the obesity epidemic  and one fought tooth and nail by the fast and packaged food industries. The fact that this was traced back to the assistant Minister for Health’s senior staffer, who happened to be a former lobbyist for these said industries, did not concern Abbott one iota. It is difficult not to contrast the behavior of Barry O’Farrell and Abbott and his ministers. The Abbott Fedral Government seems to be more captive of vested interests than any in living memory – and it has not even been in office 12 months yet.

Joe Hockey, on the other hand,  has exhibited mature leadership in not pandering to the nay sayers in the face of closure of smoke-stack and un-economic industries like cars, alumina and uncompetitive manufacturing. He has tabled a visionary process to funnel Superannuation monies into new infrastructure builds by effectively bribing the states to sell off their mature infrastructure assets and then put the proceeds into new start-up programs in return for the Federal government providing 15% of their cost. Now 50% of Super Funds go offshore, because they do not want to invest in start up infrastructure projects, but are more than prepared to invest in mature assets with proven revenues.

This will revolutionize the way infrastructure is financed and built in this country, at a time when construction in the mining industry is winding down. A sensible, common sense, and economically rational way of tackling this problem.

 

The NBN is too important to play politics with…..

You may have noticed in the Press the spat between Malcolm Turnbull and the ABC’s Technology correspondent Nick Ross. The source of this friction is that Ross has exposed the coalition’s broadband policy as the sham it is.
http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2013/02/21/3695094.htm

In this article, he goes in to a huge amount of detail comparing what is currently planned and what the coalition says it wants. Frankly, Ross has nailed Turnbull well and truly and Turnbull does not like it one little bit.  I suggest this is because Turnbull knows he (Ross) is right (Turnbull is after all one of the country’s foremost technology executives, and would understand the technology arguments very well), and he has been exposed as being a hypocrite on these issues. We all know Turnbull has gone along with Abbott’s recidivist policies presumably waiting for him to self-implode in the hope that LCP party room will turn to him, but this policy stance he is advocating is frankly irresponsible.

For any of you in doubt about this, look at my previous blog on this where CSIRO sets outs in dispassionate, objective fashion how important an advanced broadband capability will be for the future economic well-being of Australia, particularly in the light of our appalling non farming/mining productivity performance.

Those of you who read this blog regularly, will realise I am generally a fan of Malcolm Turnbull. In fact I think he is the best person to lead this country into the future. But he is dead, dead wrong on this. One of the things I admire about him is his willingness to analyse things on their merits and not get too tied up in Abbott’s high ideological approach to policy. Does this prove me wrong? I very much hope not. We can only hope that when they come to power, they will quietly shelve this stupid policy.

Further to the North Korea discussion…..

An interesting additional dimension to my entry earlier in the week on North Korea  appeared in “The Age” this morning (Saturday 9/3/2013) It states:

Missile Shield Spurs China’s Korea Stance

BY JOHN GARNAUT CHINA CORRESPONDENT BEIJING

CHINA’S support for tougher sanctions against North Korea has been prompted in part by concerns of an evolving USanchored missile defence system on its borders, say Chinese and Western analysts. The missile defence systems involve new land and sea-based radar systems, missile interceptors and intelligence sharing between the US and its regional allies aimed at shooting downa North Korean missile during the relatively lowvelocity launch phase. Analysts note that these systems could also be used to shoot down missiles launched from China’s eastern regions.

 Australia is building three air warfare destroyers with Aegis radar and missile control systems that can be potentially integrated into the US system. ‘‘ North Korea’s test of a nuclear warhead and missile may not bring much of a [direct] threat to China,’’ said Cai Jian, a North Korea expert at Shanghai’s Fudan University. ‘‘ But the response from Japan or South Korea, or America’s strategic advances into the region, are more disadvantageous to China. These are the reasons China opposes North Korea’s tests.’’

 The sanctions against last month’s nuclear test by North Korea were jointly drafted by China and the US and endorsed by the UN Security Council on Thursday night. They will make it more difficult for Pyongyang to shift money and technology in aid of its nuclear program.‘‘ These sanctions will bite and bite hard,’’ said Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the UN. The UN resolution follows Pyongyang’s successful ballistic missile test in December, as well as a stream of bellicose invective. Prior to the agreement, Pyongyang threatened to turn South Korea into ‘‘ a sea of flames’’ .

 Responding to the resolution, Kim Jong-un’s regime said on Friday it was nullifying all agreements of non-aggression and denuclearisation with South Korea and was cutting off the North-South hotline. Officials in Seoul said they were on the alert for any possible attack as Pyongyang seeks to vent its anger. ‘ The higher decibel of invective isa bit worrisome,’’ said Bill Richardson, the former governor of New Mexico, who has travelled to North Korea eight times, most recently in January. ‘‘ It’s the highest negative level I’ve ever seen, and it probably means that the hardline elements, particularly the military and not the Foreign Ministry, are in control.’’ On the other hand, Mr Richardson said, ‘‘ China is part of asignificant sanctions effort, and this may cool the North Koreans down, may temper their response.’’

 Several analysts said the effectiveness of the sanctions would depend on China adopting a far greater level of enforcement than it had previously. Regional missile defence systems are evolving in response to North Korea’s weapons program and also to increasing concerns about China’s military intentions. ‘ It allows Japan to say, ‘We’re buildinga missile defence system against North Korea but we can also use it to defend ourselves against China,’’’ said Scott Harold, a security expert with the Rand Corporation in Hong Kong. Dr Harold said the US had been strongly encouraging South Korea and Japan to engage in defence cooperation . ‘‘ Beijing is worried that this is a prelude toa trilateral alliance or a Pacific version of NATO.’’

 Those defence systems may, in turn, prompt China to build more missiles  ‘ The overall direction in which missile defence is going means the US, Japan, probably South Korea and Australia, get used to and work on the basis of integrating their systems ,’’ said Stephan Fruehling, an expert on missile defence systems at the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.

 ‘ This has political implications and symbolism, and that is what is causing China grief,’’ he said.

 Sam Roggeveen, editor of the Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter website, said there was a risk of a regional ballistic missile defence race: ‘‘ The easiest way to defeat ballistic missile defences is to overwhelm them with numbers.’’ Chinese analysts say Beijing’s backing of the new round of UN sanctions reflects frustration with North Korea but not a shift in its underlying strategic calculus. ‘‘ People are fed up with North Korea, but I’m not sure this signifies a new age,’’ said Jia Qingguo, professor of international relations at Peking University. ‘ China’s policies are in atransitional period, China is in a transitional period, andI think this period might be quite long.’’

With NEW YORK TIMES

Copyright © 2013 Fairfax Media

In other words, there is nothing like self interest to spur action. It seems China thinks that the possession of ballistic missiles by North Korea is spurring on the western allies in the Pacific: South Korea, Japan, US. Australia, to do something about protecting their population by building additional alliances and technologies which will negate the affects of the North Korean missile capabilities. This in turn would also negate the effectiveness of China own arsenal.

This is the last thing China wants. Up until now there has been a willingness on both sides – particularly the US and China  to try and work through their differences in order to come to a peaceful accomodation in the Pacific. The growth of a new military  alliance, facilitated by North Korean intransigence, just might make the Chinese come to the same accord I described in my article earlier in the week i.e. a historical agreement to dismantle the North Korean regime in return for with drawal of US troops from South Korea, declare the Korean peninsula politically neutral enforced by UN troops (not including the US), and hold free and fair elections.

The alternative to this will not only be the development of a military alliance of democracies in the Asia Pacific, but the other action mooted in my earlier articel i.e. the withdrawal of the nuclear guarantee to Japan and South Korea meaning they will acquire nuclear weapons aimed straight at China.

These moves might be just what the new Chinese Premier will need to build a case with the PLA, and the remaining hardliners in his cabinet, to move on North Korea.

It would be both historical and highly statesman-like, and may be the dawn of a new Chinese democracy and peace in what is now becoming an unstable part of the world.

It also happens to be the world engine room for growth in the forseeable future. The stakes are high to get it right…

The NBN is all about productivity improvement – ask CSIRO

For those of you who are not aware, the CSIRO has an incredibly interesting podcast called CSIROPOD. It shows off the range and depth of Australia’s leading scientific research institution. For those of you excited by the possibilities of science, like me, to solve the world’s problems, it is just a treasure-trove. Most people do not realise, though, CSIRO is not only “hard science”. It has soft science areas like economics and social research.

One area which it has tackled recently is the area of Australia’s productivity. Apparently, if you take mining and agriculture out of the mix, Australia ranks about 33 out of 36 in the OECD productivity table. This is in stark contrast to almost every other social and economic indicator where Australia usually rates in the top 3 or 4. This is a disgrace.

This interview outlines the challenge, but also the solution:

http://www.csiro.au/en/Portals/Multimedia/CSIROpod/Uploading-the-economy.aspx

What it clearly explains is that there is a solution to this predicament, but it involves Australia as a nation committing to completing the roll out of the NBN fibre to the home, which the coalition are still holding the line about dismantling. This is crazy. Malcolm Turnbull has more than enough ammunition to fire at the ALP on this area of economic policy. He should not also prevent the solution from being arrived at. It is politics in its worst form.

I still think Turnbull is the best leader for Australia at the moment, but he is dead wrong on this one.

The coming together of two visionary ideas…..

As regular readers of this blog will realise, I am a great admirer of the Federal Government’s NBN policy – one of the most visionary policies I believe from the Federal Government in recent memory and one which has the potential to greatly change the way we operate as a society for the better.

Some of you also may not realise that I am “an old Asia hand” ie someone who has lived and worked in Asia for almost a decade in my career, so I was delighted to see the Government initially commissioning their “Asia and Australia in the 21st century” White Paper, and releasing it so competently over the weekend. Having now read it thoroughly, I think the authors have done a great job, and deserve due consideration on both sides of politics, as well as in academia and the media.

Imagine my horror today, when listening to the ABC at lunchtime, when the government has allowed themselves to be marginalised by the vested interests on this issue, particularly on their commitment to Asian languages and the line from the opposition “it means nothing without extra funding”.

This is a nonsense. The extra funding comes from the NBN. Sometimes I wonder whether the Government even realises what a revolution they have started in this area.  They certainly did not explain it as they should, something they also have  a habit of doing in other areas of policy.

It started off this morning in “The Age” with one Professor Adam Chen suggesting the commitment to Asian languages “will cost billions”. This was followed up during the morning by the usual procession of vested interests with their hands out (of which as usual the Teachers Unions are the most vocal with their baseless breast beating about class sizes echoed by the Federal Opposition).

Education is the sector, along with Health, which will be most profoundly affected by the NBN. In 10 years’ time, when the NBN will be fully implemented, education will be profoundly changed.  Teaching at universities will be largely done online, when the most important things  for them will not be the size of their campus, but the quality of their teaching and the prestige of their Brand. The NBN will provide virtually unlimited capacity to teach. Rather than a university lecturer being limited to the student numbers dictated by the size of the lecture theatre, it will be restricted by the size of the demand as these services will be delivered via a limitless capacity on the internet.

As with universities, the same will apply to schools. An excellent teacher of Mandarin, rather than being restricted to a classroom, will be able to take regular classes with unlimited capacity via a very fast broadband. It will revolutionize schools, and greatly improve teaching standards to all sectors of society in all subject areas.

It is possible the Federal Labor Government would prefer to take “stick” from the Opposition, than to have to explain this fact to their constituency in the Union movement, most of whom do not appear to understand this profound change (along with most of the Press). Nevertheless, it is coming down the track, and will greatly expand the policy options for government in all sort of areas, not least Education.

In my view, it will be a revolution even more profound than the internet itself.