What does Gillard do now?

With the leadership battle behind her, Julia Gillard now needs to assert herself, not only over her party, but also over Tony Abbott. One of Rudd’s greatest weaknesses was he appeared like the nerd in the playground versus the school yard bully Abbott. Perhaps it was his ambiguous background, but he certainly appeared to be intimidated by Abbott’s relentless populists attacks.

Over the last week or so Gillard seems to be showing she is made of sterner stuff. Not only has she comprehensively outmanoeuvred Rudd (probably a legacy of her labor roots), but she has bought time to re-assert herself in the minds of the electorate. The new assertiveness, and toughness, will need to be constantly displayed though.

When you think about Abbott, he should be nowhere in the polls. Not only is he outside the Australian mainstream in terms of social policy, but he also shows no competency in terms of economic or nation building policies. So why is he ahead?

Simply, Gillard’s Labor have been unbelievably bad in the business of politics. To get back from this, she needs to:

  1. shuffle her front bench. That does not mean “do nothing” as the Rudd apologists are advocating. Carr and McClelland would have been gone under any prime minister. Simply they are incompetent, and should go to the backbench. With chief headkicker Mark Abbib now gone (is this the first sign of Julia standing up to the “faceless men”?), it allows her to refresh her front bench. I’d move Swann to Foreign Affairs and put a good communicator like Combet into treasury. Pity Lindsay Tanner is not still around, as he had outstanding communication skills. She should take the opportunity to refresh the front bench with talented , young, competent individuals,
  2. she needs a competent Prime Ministerial staff. They frankly have been appallingly bad. It is interesting that when Gillard was painted into a corner while defending the attack from Rudd, she clearly took the reins of the campaign against him, and it was some of the most effective politics of her primeministership. She needs a hard head in there. She does not have it at the moment,
  3. she needs to take the Murdoch press head on. Far too often they get away with lies and distortions which are simply wrong. This needs to stop. The only way to do this is to every day challenge their distortion, however tedious that may be, and
  4. explain the government’s economic agenda. Not in terms of popularism, but in terms of the economic merits of the arguments. Keating in particular did this, and got major reforms through. To treat people as morons might look good in the popularist world of Tony Abbott, but it does not win elections in the long-term.
For all the goings on and instability in the last months, the ALP is only 47 – 53% points behind in the polls. Effectively, a 3% points deficit. A remarkable outcome in many ways, and should be able to be made up over the next 18 months provided the government concentrates on competent government and doesn’t descent into Abbott’s populist realm. Having said that though, all distortion needs to the challenged and repudiated whenever it arises.

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