In spite of my writing several weeks ago that I thought Gillard would recover lost ground over the second half of 20012, I’ve now come to the conclusion her political end is terminal. She is unelectable. Within two months, one of the Labor elders, probably Bob Hawke, will tap her on the shoulder and tell her it is time to go, and she will be replaced by Bob Carr. Carr will create a resurgent government, and when the polls put Labor in front, the blood-letting on Tony Abbott will begin, which will make the hatchet job on Kevin Rudd look like a game of fencing. Abbott will be replaced by Malcolm Turnbull in the first quarter of next year. then the fun will begin.
Sanity will return to Australian politics, and we might, just might get some constructive debate, and resume the path of reform which has served Australia so well in the last 30 years.