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eclectic mix of michael's musings

May 10, 2012 • 1:56 pm 0

Costello, here we go again….

No matter how many times Costello denies it, hardly anyone believes he didn’t “test the water” about returning to politics. Why wouldn’t he? He would probably be PM by Christmas, as virtually the whole country breathes a sign of relief as we all dodge the bullet of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister. The country, eternally grateful….

The problem is, Costello has form when it comes to this sort of thing. The “will he or won’t he” atmosphere which pervaded the end of the Howard government about the endless speculation about a Costello challenge on Howard. In the end, of course Costello didn’t challenge when he realized the perks he would have to give up as a backbencher. Better to have the easy life as the Treasurer, and quietly exit when they lose office.

Costello’s reputation for laziness exhibits all over the place. To go to the backbench, and continuously campaign for the top job, takes energy and guts. Guts Costello doesn’t have. The precedents are endless: Frazer, Howard, Peacock, Keating, Rudd all spent time on the backbench as they organized a successful second challenge after the failure of the first. All of them, persistent gutsy men – and not lazy.

Even though I think Costello would make a better Prime Minister than either Gillard or Abbott (particularly Abbott), I fear he may not have the drive to make it a real success. Still, by far the best option is Malcolm Turnbull. Could Costello (unwittingly) be Turnbull’s stalking horse?


Filed under: Australian Federal Politics, , , ,

May 7, 2012 • 6:10 pm 0

Why Gillard Will fall on her Sword

Why Gillard Will fall on her Sword.

In spite of my writing several weeks ago that I thought Gillard would recover lost ground over the second half of 20012, I’ve now come to the conclusion her political end is terminal. She is unelectable. Within two months, one of the Labor elders, probably Bob Hawke, will tap her on the shoulder and tell her it is time to go, and she will be replaced by Bob Carr. Carr will create a resurgent government, and when the polls put Labor in front, the blood-letting on Tony Abbott will begin, which will make the hatchet job on Kevin Rudd look like a game of fencing. Abbott will be replaced by Malcolm Turnbull in the first quarter of next year. then the fun will begin.

Sanity will return to Australian politics, and we might, just might get some constructive debate, and resume the path of reform which has served Australia so well in the last 30 years.

Filed under: Australian Federal Politics, Politics, , , ,

April 1, 2012 • 4:48 am 0

Why Abbott’s political morality is so wrong and so destructive.

Although Tony Abbott has been ahead in the polls for all of the time since the last election, serious doubts remain about his suitability to become  Prime Minister, both inside and outside his own party. Why is this? Fundamentally, those who follow politics carefully have serious concerns about his abilities and his morality. This is not personal morality, but more fundamental and much more serious . It is his seeming inability to recognize that everyone , whether in government or not, has a responsibility to maintain the workings of our political system. Abbott is no fool: he is after all a Rhodes scholar. This means his ruthless disregard for the Australian body politic is quite deliberate and calculated. He defies the traditional consensus between the parties that although  oppositions are there to hold Governments to account, they do allow them to govern.

He doesn’t. His mindless opposition to anything and everything the government does is rapidly turning Australia into the sort of country that the US  has become: ie ungovernable. This consensus is there for a very good reason ie when oppositions do finally make it into Government they too need to govern. When and if Abbott ever becomes PM, he will want clear air to implement whatever policies he might dream up – and in his case they do all too often seem as though they are developed on the run about whatever seems to take his fancy at any particular time.

Labor and the Greens will never forget nor forgive this behavior. They will adopt identical tactics when he is in government. It is very very unlikely that the LCP will ever again control the Senate. Under those circumstances, this makes Australia just about ungovernable, with a seeming endless cycle of never-ending crisis, manufactured or otherwise.

Abbott will be remembered as the great wrecker of Australian politics: and he deserves to be.

Filed under: Australian Federal Politics, Politics

March 23, 2012 • 9:02 am 0

What is going to happen next?

Now that the Rudd-Gillard dustup has concluded, what is the likely scenario in the lead up to the next election? With Gillard having now passed the mining tax and the carbon tax, with both due to go into effect on 1 July, there is every possibility that she will over the next six months claw her way to the front in the polls given she is just 6 points (or a 3% swing) behind now. A much better position than either Keating, or Howard at this stage of the election cycle. I predict that she will make this up by September and hit the front in the December quarter. If this happens, watch the Liberal Party explode in internal recriminations, with the payback on Tony Abbott making the one on Rudd look like child’s play. This will result in Abbott being replaced by Turnbull which will immediately result in the LCP regaining its previously impregnable position. By February 2013, a new leader of Labor will emerge which will result in an election run-off between Turnbull and Bob Carr.

Now wouldn’t that be interesting. At least competence would be returned to both front benches, and  sanity to the Australian political scene.

And that has got to be a good thing…

Filed under: Australian Federal Politics, Politics, , , ,

March 3, 2012 • 9:09 am 0

Is Gillard getting her political skills back?

I wonder whether Julia Gillard is getting back her mojo? Since she totally out- pointed Rudd on the leadership issue, she has shown a sure hand politically. Her recent ministerial reshuffle has considerably strengthened her front bench especially the appointment of Bob Carr as Foreign Minister. Carr not only has legendary political skills, he will be a very constructive voice in cabinet given his extensive knowledge in a number of policy areas, but also understands how the states work, an essential skill since the government still has major reforms to get through the Council of Australian Governments

The process of his appointment could have been better handled, but for Tony Abbott to come out and say ” this only proves the Prime Minister has been lying all week” coming from him is a bit beyond the pale. Who can forget his famous comments on the 7.30 Report in May 2010 when he said unless I am scripted you shouldn’t believe what I say” or words to that effect.

Yes Tony, we know……….

Filed under: Australian Federal Politics

February 28, 2012 • 2:49 pm 0

The historic Telco reform…

The announcement this morning of the formalisation of the separation of the wholesale and retail arms of Telstra is a momentious and very admirable micro-economic reform. After the government hands over the $12 billion in compensation to Telstra shareholders, we will have for the first time, all telcos in this country competing on a level playing field. This ranks with the tearing down of the tariff walls in the 1980′s, the deregulation of the banks, the reform of the labour and financial markets, as major economic reforms. Indeed, it may rank in the next 30 years as more important than any of them, but has been a government reform which has been unbelievably badly sold.

The fully connected NBN network has the potential to have as great an effect on the Australian economy and Australian society as the coming of the internet in the 1990′s. Once the society is fully connected to super-fast internet (only certain Scandinavian countries and South Korea has this now), it will produce a flowering of innovation not only in current enterprises but also will see totally new business models emerge. How about an Australia Google, Amazon or Ebay? They will not be the same – no-one knows what they will be – but we have the potential for this to happen because we will have the infrastructure which very few in the OECD will have (partly because they can not now afford it).

This is an historic opportunity. With Australia’s record as being one of the most technology savvy populations in the world, this is an unprecedented opportunity. The government needs to explain this, and get people excited about it. With our productivity performance going backwards over the last five years, this is an unparralled opportunity to reverse this.

Filed under: Australian Federal Politics, Economics, Politics, , , , , ,

February 28, 2012 • 2:28 pm 1

What does Gillard do now?

With the leadership battle behind her, Julia Gillard now needs to assert herself, not only over her party, but also over Tony Abbott. One of Rudd’s greatest weaknesses was he appeared like the nerd in the playground versus the school yard bully Abbott. Perhaps it was his ambiguous background, but he certainly appeared to be intimidated by Abbott’s relentless populists attacks.

Over the last week or so Gillard seems to be showing she is made of sterner stuff. Not only has she comprehensively outmanoeuvred Rudd (probably a legacy of her labor roots), but she has bought time to re-assert herself in the minds of the electorate. The new assertiveness, and toughness, will need to be constantly displayed though.

When you think about Abbott, he should be nowhere in the polls. Not only is he outside the Australian mainstream in terms of social policy, but he also shows no competency in terms of economic or nation building policies. So why is he ahead?

Simply, Gillard’s Labor have been unbelievably bad in the business of politics. To get back from this, she needs to:

  1. shuffle her front bench. That does not mean “do nothing” as the Rudd apologists are advocating. Carr and McClelland would have been gone under any prime minister. Simply they are incompetent, and should go to the backbench. With chief headkicker Mark Abbib now gone (is this the first sign of Julia standing up to the “faceless men”?), it allows her to refresh her front bench. I’d move Swann to Foreign Affairs and put a good communicator like Combet into treasury. Pity Lindsay Tanner is not still around, as he had outstanding communication skills. She should take the opportunity to refresh the front bench with talented , young, competent individuals,
  2. she needs a competent Prime Ministerial staff. They frankly have been appallingly bad. It is interesting that when Gillard was painted into a corner while defending the attack from Rudd, she clearly took the reins of the campaign against him, and it was some of the most effective politics of her primeministership. She needs a hard head in there. She does not have it at the moment,
  3. she needs to take the Murdoch press head on. Far too often they get away with lies and distortions which are simply wrong. This needs to stop. The only way to do this is to every day challenge their distortion, however tedious that may be, and
  4. explain the government’s economic agenda. Not in terms of popularism, but in terms of the economic merits of the arguments. Keating in particular did this, and got major reforms through. To treat people as morons might look good in the popularist world of Tony Abbott, but it does not win elections in the long-term.
For all the goings on and instability in the last months, the ALP is only 47 – 53% points behind in the polls. Effectively, a 3% points deficit. A remarkable outcome in many ways, and should be able to be made up over the next 18 months provided the government concentrates on competent government and doesn’t descent into Abbott’s populist realm. Having said that though, all distortion needs to the challenged and repudiated whenever it arises.

Filed under: Australian Federal Politics, Politics, Uncategorized, , ,

February 26, 2012 • 7:34 pm 0

Gillard’s changed persona..

I know there has been a lot made “of the real Julia” (largely of her own making), but has anyone else noticed that since she has been backed into a corner by the Rudd challenge, she is a different person. Decisive, resolute, strong, articulate and tough – all words that would not have been used to describe any of her primeministership up until now. And it is a change for the better.

With the average in current polls 46 to 54 in Abbott’s favour (ABC Insiders, 26/2/12), it puts the government in a stronger position than the Howard, Keating or Hawke governments at this stage in the election cycle. Given their strong story of legislative achievement in spite of their minority position, and the continued unpopularity of Tony Abbott with a significant section of the Australian community, it is not beyond the possibility that in 18 month’s time Gillard’s government might survive against all odds. If this happens within 12 months, watch for leadership speculation to shift from the ALP to the Liberals. There are a significant number of Liberal politicians and supporters who are as appalled as the rest of us at the prospect of a Tony Abbott government. A Malcolm Turnbull lead LCP sounds a lot more acceptable, which (hopefully) the parliamentary party will come to believe also.

This though depends greatly on Julia continuing to be her new decisive, and resolute self. it remains to be seen…

Filed under: Australian Federal Politics, Politics, , , ,

February 26, 2012 • 6:54 pm 0

Gillard’s political deficiencies……

There is no doubt that the Gillard government has been one of the most incompetent federal governments in living memory at the business of politics. Time and time again they seem to be unable to capitalise on their good  government outcomes .

Just take the news over the last couple of weeks on unemployment figures. If you listen to Tony Abbott, and watch him in his magical mystery tour around the factories of the nation, you would think the country is going to hell in a hand basket. This is backed up by what seems to be an almost daily occurrence of announcements of layoffs from a variety of different enterprises in a variety of different industries. But in spite of all this, last week when the latest unemployment figures came out there was in fact a drop in unemployment numbers by 47000. If you add up all the publicly announced layoffs this year, they amount to less than 10,000 job losses nationally. This means there was, a net increase for January 2012 of some 57,000 jobs.

Don’t you think this should have given Gillard and her ministers the opportunity to explain there is nothing wrong with the Australian economy, and what we are going through is a market driven adjustment process where resources are being re-distributed from inefficient to more competitive industries, which protects people wages, and leads to an increase in productivity and wealth in the long run. “What our job is, is to help this adjustment along by providing assistance both to industry and individuals to get this done…..etc etc etc” It is not rocket science in communications terms, and yet the government was almost totally silent on the issue.

They could also use past experience of these types of adjustments where those affected have come out the other side in a so much better position than they were before. One of the most outstanding example is Newcastle on the central coast of NSW. When BHP closed their steelworks there, there was massive outcry and a protest asking for subsidies to keep it open, much like there accompanying so many of these layoff announcements in the present day.

Fortunately the government of the day did no such thing. Today, the smoke-stack industries are gone, but Newcastle has never been so prosperous. Situated as it is as the gateway to the Hunter Valley, with its very fast growing mining and primary industries, it has become a hub for service industries and is one of the more prosperous economies in Australia.

Surely it is not beyond the federal government to get some clever PR company to tell this story as relevant to what is going on at the moment.

Filed under: Australian Federal Politics, Politics, , ,

February 26, 2012 • 6:21 pm 0

The case against Kevin is very compelling

For all Kevin Rudd’s charm in public, there is no doubt he was a dysfunctional Prime Minister. What a pity Julia Gillard and her ministers did not explain this to the Australian people when she came to power. They would not be in the muddle they are in now. I know they wanted to pay due respect to an ex-PM, but there are sometimes when truth is the best policy, even in politics.

It is not as though the knowledge about Rudd was not in the public domain. David Marr in his quarterly essay “Power Trip – the political journey of Kevin Rudd” (http://www.quarterlyessay.com/issue/power-trip-political-journey-kevin-rudd) set it all out in all its dysfunctional glory in June 2010 and he followed it up last week with “Total Candor is the only way to stop him” in the SMH (http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/total-candour-was-only-way-to-stop-him-20120223-1tqs9.html. In fact, as all pollies read the Quarterly Essay, many insiders consider this article so devastating to KRudd, that they believe it to be THE thing that prompted the move for his removal. It is a very interesting article to read in the historical context.

In the Fairfax press this weekend were several devastating articles from insiders, particularly James Button (http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/we-have-to-talk-about-kevin-20100602-wxi0.html) who as well as being the son of John Button, the ex Labor Senator and Industry Minister in the Hawke Government, was also on Rudd’s staff for a year or so. All outline a compelling case against Rudd,, and why he had to go.

Maybe after Monday, the government may, just may, be able to get down to the business of government at last…

Filed under: Australian Federal Politics, Politics, , ,

Michael Liley

 

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