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With the early success of Green Edge this season, and the listless start by both Mark Cavendish and Cadel Evans, suddenly the Olympic road race may not be the foregone conclusion many had feared. In my view there are three reasons for this:

1. it is 240 km, not 130km as in the Olympic test event won by Cavendish. Cavendish has traditionally not been good at longer distances especially when it is accompanied by significant climbing;
2. it has significant hills: in fact a hill of 2.4 km at a 7% gradient. Cavenish showed in the recent Milan-San Remo that if teams put the hammer down up hill, he can’t cope with it, and the race will run up this hill 18 times (in the test event it was 7 times); and
3. he does not have the key lead-out men (Matt Goss and Mark Renshaw) he had at HTC last year, and it is starting to make a difference. In the flat course in Denmark at last year’s world championship (won by Cavendish), the lead out was fulfilled by Bradley Wiggins, but this year Wiggins will be in the mix for the general classification in the Tour de France which will finish just two weeks before the Olympic race, so he is unlikely to have the stamina for a significant contribution here.

It is interesting to analyse the Australians’ tactics in the recent Milan-San Remo, a race not unlike the Olympic one – long , fairly hilly, and very, very fast. Green Edge had two main men: Simon Gerrans and Matt Goss. Gerrans was supposed to cover any moves by the main players up the hills near to the finish, and Goss to cover the sprint if it ended in a bunch. Gerrans performed his part brilliantly, and showed he is now a racer of substance, and has probably moved into favouritism for the Olympic race.

So who should be in the Australian teams for the Olympic race?

1. Gerrans and Goss pick themselves;
2. Heinrich Haussler – although not yet a Green Edge rider, he did a brilliant job in being a lead-out man for Goss at the last world champs. He should be there;
3. Stuart O’Grady – as there are no radios in the Olympic road race, it is vital that there be a wise old head directing traffic for each team. There are none better than O’Grady; and
4. the last position is the hardest. In my view it needs to be someone who can sprint up the hill time and time again to wear the Brits out. I can think of none better than Cadel Evans for this, but like Wiggins, he is likely to have just come off three weeks of hard racing in the Tour, and probably will not be in any condition for such a tough race. Alternatively, I would go for someone like Luke Durbridge with his legendary engine, or Richie
   Porte with his climbing ability. This is the toughest of all to fill, and may in the end come down to how Cadel feels after the Tour. As he will be in the team for the time trial, it will be possible to fill this spot at the last minute.

Whatever decisions are made, Australia goes into this race with probably the best chance ever of coming home with the Gold for this event. A first in Australian Olympic history, after many very near misses.

Filed under: Cycling, London Olympics 2012